Sorry, folks. We understood that Barack Obama was going to appear on The Daily Show last night. It turns out that his appearance is scheduled for tonight (Thursday, Oct 18).

Last night’s guest was Nate Silver. Jon Stewart was so taken with his “absolutely fascinating book,”  The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t (Penguin Press) that the interview ran to two extended segments (Pt. 1 is below; link here for Pt. 2 and Pt. 3).”

Asked who is winning the presidential race, Silver said Obama has a modest lead.

Silver, who is profiled in Vanity Fair this month, has become the go-to guy on political stats, based on his accurate predictions of the 2008 presidential election which landed him a spot on Time magazine’s 100 most influential people. His blog, “FiveThirtyEight” is now licensed to the NYT.

His book landed on the NYT Nonfiction list at #12 two weeks ago and moved down to #20 last week. Libraries are showing heavy holds.

The latest episode of “Book Lust with Nancy Pearl” features an interview with Paul Auster, whose new book, a memoir, Winter Journal (Macmillan/Holt; Macmillan Audio; Thorndike Large Print) was published in August.

The already heavy holds on statistician Nate Silver’s book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t (Penguin Press) are likely to increase after his appearance on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart on Wednesday.

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t Nate Silver Retail Price: Hardcover: 544 pages Publisher: The Penguin Press – (2012-09-27) ISBN / EAN: 9781594204111, 159420411X

On NPR’s Morning Edition today (audio goes up around 9 a.m. EST), a book that warns, “Forget the 1 percent; it’s the wealthiest .1 percent who are outpacing the rest of us at breakneck speed.”

Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else Chrystia Freeland Retail Price: $27.95 Hardcover: 336 pages Publisher: Penguin Press – (2012-10-11) ISBN / EAN: 1594204098 / 9781594204098

As media attention on the election heats up, publishers are playing it safe with no-brainers, like the Rolling Stones 50, a tribute to the decades-old British rock band, and a home design book by talk show host Nate Berkus, or review-driven titles like historian Henry Wiencek’s new look at Thomas Jefferson and his slaves.  In fiction, Justin Cronin‘s followup to his blockbuster post-apocalyptic vampire novel is eagerly awaited, but is already disappointing a few reviewers. A title to watch is a cozy English novel about the Queen playing hooky. Usual suspects include Nelson DeMille, Iris Johansen, Patricia Cornwell and YA author P.C. Cast. Plus movie tie-ins to Twilight, Silver Linings and Spielberg’s Lincoln.

Watch List

Mrs. Queen Takes the Train by William Kuhn (HarperCollins; Dreamscape Audio) finds the bored Queen of England leaving the palace on a walkabout, in search of fun. It has been popular among librarians on our GalleyChat on Twitter, one of whom said, “It’s jam packed full with great Palace insider gossip and details. In the year of the Diamond Jubilee, royal watchers will eat this up! It’s fun and light.”

The Twelve by Justin Cronin (RH/Ballantine; BOT Audio;  Wheeler Large Print) is the second installment in the trilogy that began with the hit The Passage, a post-apocalyptic vampire novel by an author previously known for his quiet literary novels. This one is getting early press attention, including a profile in last week’s NYT Magazine. The L.A. Times warns, however, “even the most devoted fans may notice a bit of a sophomore slump.” The Washington Post‘s Ron Charles, says the previous title was “the scariest, most entertaining novel I’d read in a long time…Now, finally, comes the long-awaited second volume, and as much as it pains me to say it, The Twelve bites.” Entertainment Weekly is more generous, giving it a B+, even though it “doesn’t always match The Passage‘s dexterous storytelling and almost-plausible world creation…it’s still an unnerving and mostly satisfying tale of existential-threat disaster and its harrowing aftermath.”

Usual Suspects

The Panther by Nelson DeMille (Hachette/Grand Central; Hachette Audio; Hachette Large Print) finds Former NYPD detective John Corey and his FBI agent wife, Kate Mayfield, hunting a mastermind of the Al Qaeda attack on the USS Cole in 2000. Kirkus calls it, “quintessential DeMille: action-adventure flavored with double-dealing and covert conspiracy.”

Sleep No More by Iris Johansen (Macmillan/St. Martin’s; Thorndike Large Print) is the 14th Eve Duncan novel. This time the forensic sculptor, who has spent many novels investigating the disappearance of her daughter, discovers that she has a half-sister. PW says, “Series fans will be pleased to discover that Beth, like Eve, is a strong woman who has endured many trials in her past.”

The Bone Bed by Patricia Cornwell (Penguin/Putnam; Penguin Audio; Thorndike Large Print) finds forensic expert Kay Scarpetta digging into a case involving a missing paleontologist. LJ says, “Cornwell has been struggling lately; see what happens, and buy for her fans.”

Angel’s Ink: The Asylum Tales (Harper Voyager trade pbk original) marks the launch of The Asylum Tales, a new series by the New York Times bestselling author of the Dark Days novels. This one features a magical tattoo artist. An ebook-only short story (available on OverDrive), The Asylum Interviews: Trixie came out in September to whet appetites.

The Secret Keeper by Kate Morton (S&S/Atria) has been big on GalleyChat. Some think it’s her best; “Family secrets, suspense. Another winner.” This week’s People magazine concurs, giving it 4 of 4 stars and saying,”Morton weaves an intriguing mystery, shifting between past and present and among fully realized characters harboring deep secrets.”

Young Adult

Hidden by P.C. Cast, Kristin Cast (St. Martin’s Griffin; Macmillan Audio; Thorndike Large Print) is the 10th installment in the House of Night series by this mother-daughter writing team.

Nonfiction

The Rolling Stones 50 by The Rolling Stones with Mick Jagger, Keith Richards, Charlie Watts and Ronnie Wood (Hyperion) commemorates the band’s long history and survival in photos. Kirkus says it’s a “soulless corporate birthday party that sheds no new light on its well-traveled subjects.”

Master of the Mountain: Thomas Jefferson and His Slaves by Henry Wiencek (Macmillan/FSG ; HighBridge Audio) is the latest from the 1999 National Book Critics Circle Award winner for The Hairstons: An American Family in Black and White. Here, Wiencek “deftly explores the economic calculus behind Jefferson’s gradual cooling toward emancipation and eventual acceptance of human capital as a great ‘investment opportunity,” according to LJ.

The Things That Matter by Nate Berkus (Speigel & Grau) is an illustrated guide to creating a home full of meaningful things, by the designer who got a push from Oprah and now has his own talk show.

Movie Tie-Ins

The Twilight Saga: The Complete Film Archive: Memories, Mementos, and Other Treasures from the Creative Team Behind the Beloved Motion Pictures ties into the November 16 release of (can you believe it?) the the last installment in the Twilight series, Breaking Dawn, Part 2.

The Silver Linings Playbook by Matthew Quick (Macmillan/FSG/Sarah Crichton Books) ties in to the movie to be released on November 21, starring Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence and Robert DeNiro. It won the top prize at the Toronto Interntional Film Festival.

Team of Rivals; Lincoln Film Tie-in Edition by Doris Kearns Goodwin (S&S trade paperback; S&S audio tie-in) ties in to Stephen Spielberg’s Lincoln, starring Daniel Day Lewis. It opens in a limited run on November 9, releasing nationwide on November 16, and is based on the later sections of  Team of Rivals.

A few of the nominees for the National Book Awards moved up Amazon’s sales rankings after yesterday’s announcement. The lesser-known, or most recently released titles made the greatest leaps.

Only two of the finalists are currently in the Amazon top ten. Junot Diaz’s This Is How You Lose Her (Penguin/Riverhead) is at #44 (up slightly from the day before). It’s moved down since a high of #16 after a string of reviews, culminating in the 9/20 NYT Book Review

The Round House, by Louise Erdrich, Harper is at #82. The nomination came shortly after its publication on 10/2 and a week of multiple reviews (Minneapolis Star Tribune, Kansas City Star, USA Today, Cleveland Plain Dealer, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, Miami Herald).

Third in sales rankings of the nominees is The Yellow Birds by Kevin Powers, (Hachette/ Little, Brown), at #169, up slightly from the previous day and down from a high of #80 after this Sunday’s cover review in the  NYT BR.

After the jump, all the  finalists by Amazon Sales Rankings, excluding poetry, as of this morning (gathered via Publishers Marketplace‘s Book Tracker tool). Note that the NBA has far less effect on sales rankings for children’s titles than the Newbery/Caldecott/Printz Awards. Most of those winners and honorees moved into the top 100 immediately following their announcements.

National Book Award Finalists by Amazon Rankings (as of 8 a.m. 10/11/12)

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The Nonfiction Finalists, just announced on Morning Joe: (annotations from the National Book Foundation)

Anne Applebaum
Iron Curtain: The Crushing of Eastern Europe, 1945-1956
RH/Doubleday

Iron Curtain describes how the Communist regimes of Eastern Europe were created and what daily life was like once they were complete, how political parties, the church, the media, young people’s organizations―the institutions of civil society on every level―were eviscerated, how the secret police services were organized, how ethnic cleansing was carried out, and how some people were forced to collaborate while others managed to resist.

Katherine Boo
Behind the Beautiful Forevers: Life, Death, and Hope in a Mumbai Undercity
Random House

Annawadi is a makeshift settlement in the shadow of luxury hotels near the Mumbai airport. As India starts to prosper, Annawadians are electric with hope: Individual stories of courage set against the backdrop of tensions over religion, caste, sex, power and economic envy.

Robert A. Caro
The Passage of Power: The Years of Lyndon Johnson, Volume 4
RH/Knopf

The fourth installment in Robert Caro’s monumental work on President Lyndon Johnson, The Passage of Power follows Johnson through both the most frustrating and the most triumphant periods of his career: 1958 to 1964

Domingo Martinez
The Boy Kings of Texas
Globe Pequot Press/Lyons Press

Domingo Martinez lays bare his interior and exterior worlds as he struggles to make sense of the violent and the ugly, along with the beautiful and the loving, in a Texas border town in the 1980s. First Book

Anthony Shadid
House of Stone: A Memoir of Home, Family, and a Lost Middle East
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

In the spring of 2011, when Anthony Shadid—one of four New York Times reporters captured in Libya as the region erupted—was freed, he went to his ancestral home, Marjayoun, Lebanon…to an ancient estate built by his great-grandfather, a place filled with memories of a lost era when the Middle East was a world of grace, grandeur, and unexpected departures, and tells the story of the house’s re-creation, revealing its mysteries and recovering the lives that have passed through it. Shadid died on February 16, 2012 from an asthma attack while on assignment on the Syrian border.

Former Penn State coach Jerry Sandusky was sentenced to at least 30 years in prison today for child molestation.

A memoir, Silent No More, (RH/Ballantine), written by “Victim One” along with his mother and pyschologist, is being released on Oct. 23rd. “Victim One” testified dramatically at the Sandusky trial. His identity has been kept a secret (thus no cover is available yet), but will be revealed when he is interviewed by ABC’s Chris Cuomo on the day of the book’s release. The interview will air on World News and Nightline that night and on Good Morning America the following day.

In a recorded prison statement released yesterday, Sandusky referred to Victim #1, saying “A young man who was dramatic, a veteran accuser who always sought attention started everything. He was joined by a well-orchestrated effort of the media, investigators, the system, Penn State, psychologists, civil attorneys and other accusers.”

Songwriter/guitarist for The Who, Pete Townshend talked about his memoir, Who I Am, which releases today (Harper; HarperAudio; and, how telling is this? It is also available in larger print from HarperLuxe) on the Today Show this morning.

For those who want the shorthand version, the Daily Beast offers a “speed read” of the book’s highlights.

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

A feature on NPR’s Weekend Edition Sunday propelled Timothy Egan’s book about the 19th C photographer Edward Curtis up to #33 on Amazon’s sales rankings.

Short Nights of the Shadow Catcher: The Epic Life and Immortal Photographs of Edward Curtis (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; Dreamscape Audio) describes how Curtis became obsessed with photographing Native Americans after stumbling upon Princess Angeline, the daughter of Chief Seattle, living not only in extreme poverty but illegally, since Seattle had banned Native Americans from living within the boundaries of the city named after her father.

Unsurprisingly, holds are heaviest in the Northwest.

Egan has written six books including the National Book Award winner The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl (HMH, 2005).

His previous book, published in 2009, is The Big Burn: Teddy Roosevelt and the Fire that Saved America.

Pitch Perfect, the movie about a college a capella group, opening today, sounds like it has the makings of a hit. People analyzes its appeal, “Though Pitch is wallpaperd with cliches and aimed at folks who worship Glee, it’s funny enough … to amuse even those of us who like our music less earnest and back by a band.” The critics, as rounded up by Rotten Tomatoes, generally agree. Just a few (including the New York Times) were not amused.

Many may be surprised to hear that the movie is based on the 2008 nonfiction book by GQ editor, Mickey Rapkin, now re-released as a tie-in. Most libraries own just a few copies of the original, with some holds.

Pitch Perfect (movie tie-in): The Quest for Collegiate A Cappella Glory Mickey Rapkin Retail Price: $16.00 Paperback: 288 pages Publisher: Penguin/Gotham – (2012-09-04) ISBN / EAN: 1592408214 / 9781592408214

The excitement in the upcoming week is in nonfiction, starting with a new collection of Beatle John Lennon‘s private letters, a new Barbra Streisand bio by William J. Mann, and a biography of photographer Edward Curtis by Timothy Egan, along with a YA adaptation of Navy Seal Eric Greitens‘s bestselling memoir. Usual suspects include James Patterson (with Marshall Karp), Robert K. Morgan and the man known as the “Stephen King of children’s literature,” R L Stein, delivers his first adult horror novel (thanks for the correction; this is actually his second book for adults, after his 1995 title, Superstitious).

Nonfiction

The John Lennon Letters by John Lennon, edited by Hunter Davies (Hachette/Little, Brown; Hachette Audio) collects the beloved Beatles private letters to family, friends, strangers, and lovers from every point in his life, with annotations by Hunter Davies, author of  the authorized biography The Beatles (1968).

Hello, Gorgeous: Becoming Barbra Streisand by William J. Mann (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; Thorndike Large Print) focuses on the singer’s breakthrough years in the Sixties, when she starred in Funny Girl on Broadway and recorded three platinum albums. PW says, “Combining extensive interviews (some anonymous) and exhaustive archival research, Mann balances intimate personal details with audience reactions and critical acclaim to etch an indelible portrait of the artist as a young woman.”

Short Nights of the Shadow Catcher: The Epic Life and Immortal Photographs of Edward Curtis by Timothy Egan (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; Dreamscape Audio) is the Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer’s account of 19th C portrait photographer Edward Curtis, who gave up a thriving career to chronicle more than 80 Native American tribes before their way of life disappeared. The result was Curtis’s classic 20-volume set, The North American Indian, which took 30 years to complete and left him divorced and destitute. Kirkus says, “Lucent prose illuminates a man obscured for years in history’s shadows.”

Jesus Today: Experience Hope Through His Prescence by Sarah Young (HarperCollins/Thomas Nelson) is the second book from the missionary and breakout author of Jesus Calling.

There Was a Country: A Personal History of Biafra by Chinua Achebe (Penguin Press; Penguin Audiobooks) blends political analysis, history, and personal reminiscences of the Nigerian civil war of 1967-70 in a coming of age memoir. The author best known for the novel Things Fall Apart, which has sold ten million copies worldwide since 1958. Kirkus says, “a powerful memoir/document of a terrible conflict and its toll on the people who endured it.”

Nonfiction – Young Adult

The Warrior’s Heart by Eric Greitens (HMH Young Readers) adapts the author’s bestseller The Heart and the Fist for teen readers, focusing on the youthful adventures that led him to become a humanitarian and a Navy SEAL. Kirkus says Greitens retraces his coming of age “with well-deserved pride but not self-aggrandizement,” and says it’s “as thought provoking as it is entertaining.”

Usual Suspects

NYPD Red by James Patterson and Marshall Karp (Hachette/Little, Brown; Little Brown Large Print; Hachette Audio) finds the NYPD on high alert when a deranged killer strikes a series of red carpet celebrity events.

Red Rain by R L Stein (S&S/Touchstone; Simon & Schuster Audio) is the first second adult horror novel by the bestselling author of the  Goosebumps and Fear Street series, involving a hurricane and psychopath. PW says it “fails to compel.”

Simon Winchester has covered many broad sweeping subjects in his writing career, but in his latest book, he focuses on a single collection.

Of course, it is a pretty remarkable collection; thousands of skulls, from the smallest, that of a wren, up to a hippopotamus skull, housed, improbably in the owner’s bedroom.

Skulls: An Exploration of Alan Dudley’s Curious Collection, is featured in the NYT Science section today. It wasn’t reviewed prepub, so few libraries have ordered it.

Skulls: An Exploration of Alan Dudley’s Curious Collection Simon Winchester Retail Price: $29.95 Hardcover: 240 pages Publisher: Black Dog & Leventhal Publishers – (2012-10-09) ISBN / EAN: 1579129129 / 9781579129125

The new book, Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic by David Quammen (Norton), featured on NPR’s Weekend Edition yesterday, is so frightening that the interviewer asked how people can continue with their lives once they learn that a virus far worse than SARS is in our future. Some may take solace in another new book, Regenesis, by George M. Church (Perseus/Basic Books), which gets the Colbert treatment on Thursday. The author claims that, because of “synthetic biology,” we can look forward to “a future in which human beings have become immune to all viruses, in which bacteria can custom-produce everyday items, like a drinking cup, or generate enough electricity to end oil dependency.”

On Wednesday, Kenny Rogers will sit down with Colbert to talk about his memoir, Luck or Something Like It (Harper/Morrow; Dreamscape Audio; ebook and audio on OverDrive), which releases tomorrow.

Tonight, on The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, Arnold Schwarzenegger continues his media blitz for his memoir, Total Recall: My Unbelievably True Life Story by Arnold Schwarzenegger (S&S; Thorndike Press; S&S Audio). He appeared on Sixty Minutes last night. The book is reviewed by Janet Maslin in the New York Times today.
 

[NOTE: If you linked here from the 10/5 newsletter, we posted the wrong one. The correct one is New Title Radar: October 8 – 14]

Politics rules nonfiction this week, with a memoir by former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, and new books by political pundits Stephen Colbert, Bill O’Reilly and Ann Coulter. In fiction, returning favorites include Mark Helprin and Per Patterson, plus there’s a charming debut by Robin Sloan. Usual suspects include Dennis Lehane, John Sandford, Nora Roberts, Christine Feehan and Sylvia Day. In YA, Rick Riordan returns with much anticipation and adult author Jasper Fforde starts a fantasy series.

Watch List

Mr. Penumbra’s 24-Hour Bookstore by Robin Sloan (Macmillan/FSG) is a modern fantasy about a laid off web designer turned bookstore clerk in San Francisco who uses old and new media to crack a variety of codes. Kirkus says, “Sloan’s debut novel takes the reader on a dazzling and flat-out fun adventure, winding through the interstices between the literary and the digital realms.” It was a BEA Librarian’s Shout ‘n’ Share pick and continues as a favorite on GalleyChat. That cover glows in the dark.

Returning Favorites

In Sunlight and in Shadow by Mark Helprin (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt; Blackstone Audio) gets the thumbs up from People magazine, which gives it 4 of 4 stars and designates it a People Pick in the new issue: “Helprin’s delightful new novel is a 705-page mash note to Manhattan in the years immediately following World War II. Like Winters Tale, the 1983 bestseller that made his name, it’s a paean to women and their beauty… Helprin paints a dazzling portrait of the city… and evokes the universal, dizzy delight of falling head over heels in love.” NPR’s All Things Considered also gave it a strong review. The film of Helprin’s Winter’s Tale, to begin production in Manhattan on October 27, stars Colin Farrell, Downton Abbey‘s Jessica Brown Findlay, William Hurt, Will Smith and Russell Crowe.

It’s Fine By Me by Per Patterson (Graywolf Press) explores the youth of Arvid Jensen, last seen in Patterson’s I Curse the River of Time (2010). This book is a reissue of a 1992 novel by Norwegian author Patterson, who first broke out with Out Stealing Horses, which won the 2007 International IMPAC Dublin Literary Award. LJ calls this one “Essential for upmarket readers.”

Usual Suspects

Live by Night by Dennis Lehane (Harper/ Morrow; Harperluxe; HarperAudio) is a crime novel set in the Prohibition era about the rise of an Irish-American gangster. It gets a B+ in Entertainment Weekly, which calls it a “ripping, movie-ready yarn that jumps from a Boston prison to Tampa speakeasies to a Cuban tobacco farm.”

Mad River by John Sandford (Penguin/Putnam; Center Point Large Print; Penguin Audiobooks) is the fifth novel featuring Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension agent Virgil Flowers, who investigates an armed rampage by three teens in rural Minnesota. It was featured on NPR’s Weekend edition Saturday.

The Perfect Hope by Nora Roberts (Penguin/Berkley; Thorndike Large Print; Brilliance Audio) is the final installment in the Inn Boonsboro trilogy.

Dark Storm by Christine Feehan (Penguin/Berkley; Thorndike Press; Penguin Audiobooks) is the latest in the Carpathian series of paranormal romances.

Reflected in You by Sylvia Day (Berkley; Brilliance Audio; Thorndike Large print) — is the second in the Crossfire series, which began with the self-published Bared to You, widely regarded as a successor to Fifty Shades of Grey (and with covers that underscore the similarity). UPDATE: We had the wrong pub. date. It’s actually Oct. 23, which means you still have time to request the digital ARC via Edelweiss and NetGalley.

Young Adult

The Mark of Athena:(Heroes of Olympus, Book 3) by Rick Riordan (Hyperion Books; Thorndike Press; Listening Library) has been right behind J.K. Rowling’s new book on Amazon’s sales rankings and rivals the Nora Roberts title for the most holds on this list.

The Last Dragonslayer by Jasper Fforde (Harcourt Children’s Books; Brilliance Audio) is a YA fantasy novel by the British author of the fanciful Thursday Next literary mysteries and the Nursery Crime series. PW says, “There’s a lot of setup for later books in Fforde’s Chronicles of Kazam, but it’s so inventive and charming that readers will happily stick with it (though the tragic death of a major character will hit some of them hard) and be impatient for the next episode.”

Movie Tie-Ins

Cloud Atlas by David Mitchell (Random House Trade) is one of two titles, long considered unfilmable, that will actually be released this fall. News of the movie sent Mitchell’s 2004 title back to best seller lists (the regular trade paperback edition is at #5 on the 10/7 NYT best seller list, after 8 weeks). Starring Tom Hanks, Jim Sturgess, Halle Berry, Hugo Weaving, Susan Sarandon and Hugh Grant, the movie arrives in theaters on Oct. 26.

Life of Pi by Yann Martel (HMH; Random House Large Print Publishing; HighBridge Audio) is the second of the two titles coming out this fall that were long considered unfilmable. Directed by Ang Lee, it releases on Nov. 21. The Making of Life of Pi : A Film, a Journey by Jean-Christophe Castelli will be released on 10/30.

Nonfiction

Total Recall: My Unbelievably True Life Story by Arnold Schwarzenegger (Simon & Schuster; Thorndike Press; Simon & Schuster Audio)  is a memoir by the former California governor about his rise from Austrian bodybuilder to Mr. Universe, business man, movie star, Kennedy family member via marriage to Maria Shriver, Republican leader, and his affair and child with a longtime family employee. It will be featured on 60 Minutes on Sunday, Sept. 30, and has been promoted in advance on CBS This Morning

America Again: Re-becoming the Greatness We Never Weren’t by Stephen Colbert (Hachette/Grand Central; Hachette Audio) is the latest political satire from the host of Comedy Central’s Colbert Report.